Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions for July of 2023 – Bridgewater Edition

The objective of this market report is to utilize my local expertise to provide a clear understanding of the real estate market in Somerset County and Bridgewater. My monthly market update will guide you through the economic conditions and trends that impact our local markets. The update also provides hyper-local statistics that are not readily available elsewhere. By the end of the report, you will not only know what is happening in the Somerset County market but also understand why (the reasons behind it). This will enable you to stay informed and make informed decisions when buying or selling a home in 2023.

You can also find a version of the report covering Hunterdon County here.

“What’s” Happening in Somerset County’s Real Estate Market?

The current robust economic indicators, particularly following the recent changes in interest rates, raise concerns that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates in the near future.

Interest rate hikes had increased slightly through May.  They are expected to drop as inflation is curtailed but will not see the levels of two years ago. Additionally, sellers have become more reasonable in their pricing and are willing to negotiate, making it an excellent opportunity for potential home buyers to re-enter the market. We are even seeing appraisals come in lower than bids in some over-bid situations.

We are witnessing a 35% + reduction in new listings and around a 20% + reduction in sales compared to last year.

The market appears to be returning to a more normal state, with fewer offers above the asking price, and bids are now back to containing contingencies such as a mortgage, home sale, and inspection. Newly listed inventory increased from the previous month, and the total inventory is up slightly. However, demand still surpasses supply, which has kept prices stable in our area, except for the upper price points, where prices seem to be under pressure as those markets appear headed towards a neutral or even buyer’s market.

You’ll find the answer here if you’re wondering whether to buy or sell. The market still strongly favors sellers due to fast-moving inventory, which has kept prices stable in our area. However, it seems to be gradually transitioning back to a buyer’s market at the higher price points. The prices rose nearly 12% in 2020, 18% in 2021, and 9% in 2022. However, we didn’t expect much significant growth in early 2023 (but were surprised that it still happened), and the $900K and above priced homes are seeing additional inventory, which is affecting their supply/demand curves.

Market Statistics for Somerset County:

• Last month, the market saw a small increase in new inventory, with 209 new listings, compared to 199 in the previous month. However, this decreased from the 433 new listings seen in the same month in 2022.
• As of the beginning of this month, the available inventory has increased to 371 units, up from 354 units last month. However, this is still much lower than the 667 units available in the same month last year.
• The number of units that went “under contract” last month was 350, which is an increase from the previous month’s 344 but a decrease from the 451 units in the same month last year.
• Over the past month, the average number of days on the market has decreased from 28 to 25 days, indicating a rise in buyer demand.
• Currently, the month’s supply of inventory stands at just under 1.5 months, indicating a strong seller’s market. This trend holds true for properties priced under $1,000K.

The present market conditions exhibit an optimal supply and demand curve that favors our sellers. Therefore, waiting until later in 2023 to sell may not be a wise strategy. The current market is probably at its peak, and it’s unlikely to witness any significant price increases or sustain the high price points for much longer. It’s advisable to take advantage of the current market situation and list your property for sale now.

New Jersey Residential Real Estate Market Forecast

The spring and early summer seasons of 2023 brought about solid listings and sales, despite not being as strong as the previous year, which was above average (called a unicorn year). This was attributed to the increased move to the West (urban flight), pent-up demand, challenging mortgage rates, and sellers entering the market as Covid-19 concerns waned.

Although inventory levels remain low, new listings are selling quickly, resulting in strong sales for sellers. However, the most significant uncertainty in 2023 is finding a more suitable home and an affordable mortgage.

On the buyer side,  as a point of comparison, a $500K priced house would cost well over $500 more today for a 30-year conventional mortgage with 20% down. It is estimated that the median-priced house’s purchase will require a $30-35k increase in annual income compared to just a year ago due to rising mortgage rates as a percentage of their income. This has resulted in many first-time buyers being priced out of the market. Nonetheless, if possible, it is an excellent time to purchase a home as the terms have stabilized due to the lack of competition, and refinancing is always an option as interest rates decrease in the future.

Due to fewer listings and the fast sales pace, there have been fewer open houses and attendees in 2023.

Somerset County Real Estate Market Inventory Breakdown By Price For Last Month:

• 37% of sales in houses > $500,000
• 46% of sales in the $500,000 to the $800,000 range
• 17% percent of total sales (or 10 in total) in houses >$800,000

Somerset County Real Estate Market Inventory Breakdown By Municipality For Last Month:

Two areas had no sales last month:

• Millstone
• Rocky Hill

One area had 1 sale each last month:

• Far Hills

Hotspots:

• Bernards/Bernards Twp. – 45 Sales
• Bridgewater – 41 Sales
• Franklin Twp. – 53 Sales
• Hillsborough – 45 Sales
• Warren/Watchung – 34 Sales

These hotspot areas equaled 68% of the sales last month. The average new listing coming on the market last month neared $914,584. The average unit price going “under contract” was $709,212 (22.5% less).

Bridgewater Township Statistics:

• There are 39 homes for sale in Bridgewater Township as of this writing.
• Of the 39 homes for sale, 16 are community properties (such as townhouses and condos) and five are in our 55+ communities
• The average list price for all listings in Bridgewater Township is $852,876.
• There were 25 new listings in Bridgewater Township last month with an average list price of $627,287.
• There were 41 homes that have gone under contract in the past 30 days with an average list price of $711,729 and 30 days on market.
• Giving us just under 1 month of inventory
• Call for additional details

Note:

If you want to obtain a competitive price for your property based on its location and uniqueness, you can contact me at (908) 304-4660. By leveraging Coldwell Banker’s big data technology and Artificial Intelligence capabilities, you can gain a unique advantage in the market. I can demonstrate the latest age and earnings breakdown for your area, including where people are moving from and how to market directly to those specific areas and demographics. This approach will maximize the selling price while reducing the time on the market. Accurately priced and marketed homes tend to sell faster with the assistance of a seasoned real estate industry veteran and a local area expert.

“Why” is it happening…

New Jersey’s Economic Drivers:

New Jersey Home Sales and Inventory levels:

• The market rebound that started in June 2020 has persisted through the fall of 2022 and is now slowing to a more normal to declining pace in early 2023.
• There are early signs of some pullback in pricing at the higher price tiers, but the lower tiers are still seeing increases in prices.
• First-time buyers are cooling down due to higher pricing, inventory shortages, and rising interest rates.
• Potential sellers find it challenging to locate suitable housing and are hesitant to list until they do. They are also dismayed by interest rates that are higher than they currently have in place on their current homes.
• The current month’s supply of inventory in Hunterdon and Somerset County remains well under 1.5 months due to the rapid sales of new listings, which is called velocity. However, the market remains active.
• Hunterdon and Somerset County have considerably less inventory than a year ago. The unsold inventory in New Jersey has steadily decreased since reaching a peak in July of over 20,000 to about 12,700 today.
• Inventory reductions have occurred in all price ranges, with the under $400,000 market experiencing the most significant impact with 46% fewer homes and the $400K to $600K price tier seeing a decrease of 40%. The $600K to $1,000K price tier saw a decrease of 15%.
• New housing development has simply not kept up with population growth and is now focused on the rental market.

Interest Rates:

• Interest rates have improved significantly since their peak in early 2023 but are a bit higher than last month’s numbers. With the debt ceiling not yet resolved, they have bounced around during the month of May.
• The economy is adjusting, and the average interest rates for a 30-year conventional mortgage have climbed slightly to just under 6.6%, while a fifteen-year conventional mortgage is around the 5.9% mark.
• It is anticipated that rates will drop as inflation improves, but they will not come anywhere near the rats we saw just two years back.
• Many buyers are considering attractive ARM rates and other buy-down plans as alternatives.
• Additional activity to ease or temper the amount of mortgage-backed securities that the Fed buys each month is now being seen, negatively affecting rates in the future.
• Based on the current rates, first-time buyer mortgage applications have dropped, but restructuring debt and paying down high-interest items remain active.
• The Fed’s efforts to slow things down have resulted in the above.
• The Fed is expected to raise the rate another 1/4 point again in July.

National Job Front:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction.
• At the same time, job gains for the previous two months were revised downward by a total of 110,000 jobs, with 306,000 jobs created in May and 217,000 in April. This gets little exposure on the network news channels but is not a strong indicator of the market.
• It’s important to note that natural job growth of about 175K per month is included in this number.
• The analysts state that many new jobs were created as small businesses failed and those people reentered the labor force.
• The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points over the month to 62.6 percent. This rate is calculated by dividing the sum of all workers employed or actively looking for a job by the working-age population.
• Many people are resigning to pursue new career paths due to perceived health risks, the desire for more remote work, and a better work-life balance. New technology-based jobs are affecting this trend.
• In the under $50K earners, there is even some incentive not to work and collect benefits, contributing to the current unemployment rate.
• There are an estimated 10 million job openings, while about 6.1 million people remain unemployed. This means two jobs are available for every job seeker, increasing wages.
• The lower end of the job market has benefited the most from this trend, with higher starting pay rates competing for the lack of workforce. Jobs starting in the mid to upper $20 per hour are already being offered.

New Jersey Job Front:

• The unemployment rate in NJ for May; was 3.6%, the same as the national rate.
• NJ has recovered all the jobs lost during the early months of the pandemic.
• Job losses are still prevalent in industries such as construction, food services, and accommodations, with retail and wholesale trade also experiencing a downturn in some states. Even health care, social assistance, and manufacturing are shedding workers.
• NJ was hit harder than most states in the early months of the pandemic, but it has made a remarkable recovery since then.
• However, the job losses may still impact the lower end of the buyer’s market in 2022.

Rental Market Trends:

• Rental prices in New Jersey have continued to increase in 2022, with a year-over-year average of over 3.5%, and are currently averaging just over $2,100 per unit. However, recent data shows a slight decrease in these prices.
• The vacancy rate in central New Jersey is currently at 3.2%, indicating a limited rental supply and leading to a rise in rental prices.
• The rental market typically includes some low-end buyers who opt to rent due to a shortage of available inventory. However, the recent constraints in the mortgage market have also contributed to the increase in this sector.

New Jersey Foreclosures:

• The delinquency rate in NJ has decreased, which is a positive development.
• NJ’s current foreclosure rate remains low at 1.3%.
• Nationally, there is $11 trillion in equity to protect homeowners during a potential recession.
• The average FICO score of mortgage holders is over 750, higher than during the 2008 financial crisis.
• A slowdown and recession could still cause job losses and put mortgages at risk.
• Only 18% of mortgages in forbearance are at risk due to unresolved forbearance issues.
• A housing bust is not predicted to occur since there is a lot of positive equity in houses, thanks to recent appreciations.

Real Estate Market Recap

Forecast:

• The COVID-19 pandemic seems to be under control, but the economy is not facing a slowdown, with the GDP trending down for the last two quarters.
• Supply chain shortages have affected inflation, and concerns remain that oversupply could suddenly reverse, causing massive price reductions and possible lay-offs.
• Inflation (while dropping) continues to cause havoc on auto, finished goods, and energy pricing and is the enemy of long-term interest rates.
• The continued invasion of Europe has shed some doubt on market predictability, and the near future is somewhat unpredictable.
• Mortgage rates have risen and are now back up to 6.7% + as the Fed is tapering its current level of investment in mortgage-backed securities.
• The inventory supply has increased slightly, and the housing affordability index has improved slightly, but mortgage payments are still nearing 30% of gross.
• Due to COVID-19 and recent unrest in NYC, interest in living in more suburban counties such as Hunterdon and Somerset has disappeared.
• Many people have found that working from home (in total or part) is a reality, and we will see less commuting and traveling in general as things start to open up again.
• Retailing and using vacant industrial space will transform to meet the new altered demands and lifestyles.
• The local market will have to adapt to the new suburban renaissance of where people will be working and what they will need to adapt.
• The lingering question has been, “Can we keep this momentum up with low to slightly rising inventory?” as predictions for slower sales and price increases in the balance of 2023 have already been made.
• Depending on their location and price points, local property values saw at least 18%+ appreciation in 2021 and another 12% in 2020, with the 2022 appreciation forecast at 9%. The first quarter of 2023 is not in yet but appears to be 9% when annualized but is leveling off at the high end.
• Days on the market in our area pulled back slightly, showing buyers are becoming more active.
• But change is resulting in a back towards a more normalized environment if inventory continues coming onto the market and the first-time buyer fatigue that we have seen continues.
• Younger (millennial) buyers are coming of age in the pipeline for at least the next four to five years, which will continue to put more demand on the first-time buyer market, usually under $400K.

This is a substantial amount of information, and the situation is evolving daily. Nevertheless, it appears to be moving in a positive direction for now. If you require further clarification or have any concerns about how this could impact your individual circumstances, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me at (908) 304-4660. I’m always available to chat and assist you in gaining a better understanding.

Note:  Presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. Although reasonable care has been taken to provide this information, it is advised that you seek the guidance of a professional sales agent and avoid making any decisions solely based on my views, gathered trends, and statistics. I am not responsible for any consequences that may result from the utilization of this data.

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