NJ Residential Real Estate Market Update Reports

NJ Residential Real Estate

When you’re making one of the biggest financial decisions in your life, tapping into quality market research creates calm logical reference points. Joe’s NJ Residential Real Estate Market Reports show people what’s happening and why it’s happening in everyday language.

His five monthly reports focus on economic and human behavior dynamics that drive market conditions. They’re free as a public service. If you would like to receive a report at the beginning of the month, give Joe a call.  

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Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018 – Bridgewater Township Edition

 

Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018 – Bridgewater Township Edition

Real Estate Market Conditions

Get ahead of the real estate market economic and behavior drivers in Somerset County, New Jersey with Coldwell Banker Residential Broker sales associate, Joe Peters.

This Market Update will not only show you what is happening in your local market area, but it will also explain why it is happening and what is contributing to these results.

 

“What” it is happening

Somerset County New Jersey Real Estate Market Conditions (including):

  1. Branchburg
  2. Bridgewater
  3. Somerville
  4. Hillsborough 
  5. Warren
  6. Watchung

Based on the last full month’s contract sales, statistics show a supply of approximately three months. Normal market conditions average four to six months in Somerset County.  Units going under contract averaged 46 days on the market. 423 properties went “under contract” in April, up from 413 in the prior month. Newly listed properties in the same period totaled 635.

Somerset County Inventory Breakdown By Price For Last Month:

  New Listings Under Contract Active Listings Month’s Supply
Condos/Town Houses * 179 129 389 3
Over 55 Communities* 13 14 42 3
$000K to $199K 38 40 89 2
$200K to $299K 109 100 238 2
$300K to $399K 104 76 196 3
$400K to $499K 70 44 143 3
$500K to $599K 75 46 141 3
$600K to $699K 49 36 118 3
$700K to $799K 62 26 128 5
$800K to $899K 25 19 83 4
$900K to $999K 26 13 81 6
$1,000K and Up 77 23 258 11
Totals for April 635 423 1475 3
Average Price $662,497 $491,040 -25.9%
Average Days on Market 46
* Included in $ breakdowns

Somerset County Sales Breakdown Overview:

  • 51 % of sales in houses < $500,000
  • 37 %of sales in houses > $500,000 and < $1,000,000
  • 12 % percent of total sales (or 23 in total) in houses >$1,000,000

Somerset County Inventory Breakdown By Municipality For Last Month:

Active Listings Under Contract Month’s Supply
Bedminster Twp 59 14 4
Bernards Twp 167 46 4
Bernardsville 92 11 8
Bound Brook 23 4 6
Branchburg Twp 64 15 4
Bridgewater Twp 190 61 3
Far Hills Boro 16 1 16
Franklin Twp 194 73 3
Green Brook 35 11 3
Hillsborough 147 59 2
Manville Boro 36 11 3
Millstone Boro 3 1 3
Montgomery Twp 142 24 6
North Plainfield 52 32 2
Peapack Gladstone 14 4 4
Raritan Boro 13 7 2
Rocky Hill Boro 3 1 3
Somerville Boro 19 12 2
South Bound Brook 14 10 1
Warren Twp 140 19 7
Watchung Boro 52 7 7
Totals 1475 423 3

Somerset County Sales Breakdown Detailed:

No area in Somerset County reported no sales in the past month

Three areas reported one or two sales each last month

  • Far Hills
  • Millstone
  • Rocky Hill

Hotspots:

  • Bernards – 46 sales
  • Bridgewater – 61 sales
  • Franklin – 73 sales
  • Hillsborough – 59 sales
  • Montgomery – 24 sales

These hotspot areas equaled 62% of the sales last month. The average new listing coming on the market last month neared $662,497 The average price of a unit going “under contract” neared $491,040 (26% less).

Bridgewater Township Statistics:

  • There are 190 homes for sale in Bridgewater Township as of this writing.
  • Of the 190 homes for sale, 39 are community properties (such as town houses and condos) and three are in our 55+ communities
  • The average list price for all listings in Bridgewater Township is $559,035.
  • There were 100 new listings in Bridgewater Township last month with an average list price of $519,041.
  • There were also sixty-one homes that have gone under contract in the past 30 days with an average list price of $487,410 and 45 days on market.
  • Giving us 3+ months of inventory
  • Call for additional details

Note: To get an accurate price point for your property, contact me. Coldwell Banker’s big data technology capabilities will put you at an advantage. Plus, we can now tell you where people are moving in to your area from and market to that area directly. Houses priced and marketed accurately sell fast, especially with a real estate industry veteran and local expert helping you navigate the process.

 

The initial section of this Market Report reported on “What” is happening.

This section will focus on “Why” it is happening

 

New Jersey’s Economic Drivers:

New Jersey Home Sales:

Home purchase demand for in the first two months of 2018 in New Jersey reached a new record and representing a 2% increase over the prior year. In March they went down by 6% netting a break even for the quarter.

The effect of the new Tax and Jobs Act is still being digested and may slow things down while this takes place.

Activity concentrates in the <$400,000 market (which actually pulled back a little in March due to lack of inventory) where Millennial buyers transition into home ownership. During the same period, all housing sales showed increases across all other price points showing confidence in the new administration’s plans on taxes and deregulation. There has also been an improvement at the very high end in towns where rail service to Manhattan is available.

At the same time, the number of homes offered for sale in New Jersey remained low and had recently decreased. The supply decreased by ~ 4,500 homes, compared to a year ago.  Currently, ~36,000 fewer homes are on the market compared to the 2011 peak.

Current unsold inventory in New Jersey varies widely by county with some having only 2.5 months.  no county presently has more than 8 months supply.

We have an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county in our more popular price points and locations.

Hunterdon and Somerset County has  10 and 4% less inventory respectively than a year ago.  And, those counties have about 24 and 19% less inventory respectively than two years ago.

The fear of increasing interest rates based on future increases and the Fed’s slightly loosening lending standards are driving the current market activity.

 

Interest Rates:

The economy is strengthening, and Interest rates at the end of April rose slightly to just over 4.5% for a 30-year conventional mortgage (highest since 2014). A fifteen-year conventional mortgage rests at just under the 4% range. Five-year arms are just under the 3.75% range.

Consumer fears of steadily rising interest rates and slowly rising home prices are driving the current market demand. The Fed already instituted initial increases in rates and are talking about additional ones. Industry analysts forecast to be nearly 5% by the end of 2018, and 5.5% by the end of 2019. If the rate increases from 4% to 5%, buyers will lose 9% of their buying power and have already lost .6% with rate increases over the past few months.

Combine this  with the steadily increasing prices and consumer confidence, and you have what is driving our current market activity

 

National Job Front:

US unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, the lowest it has been in over eighteen years! This trend is expected to continue as a result of the recent tax reform.

On the national level the US added 605,000+ jobs in January thru March of 2018 and is trending towards 2.5 million added jobs by year-end.

And the GDP has grown by 41% over the last four quarters.

 

Consumer confidence is the highest since 2004. Great news for the housing industry!

 

New Jersey Job Front:

NJ unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%, bolstering consumer confidence remains high in NJ as well.

And, 33,500+ jobs were added in NJ in the first three months of 2018 which was a significant improvement over 2017 and if it continues, NJ could add nearly 150,000 jobs by year end.

The level of jobs created was at a much higher level than in the past several years (a silver lining?).

It also should be noted that these jobs are concentrated in the northern half of the state.

 

Rental Market Trends:

We still have an extremely tight rental market!

Prior restrictive mortgage standards nudged Millennials to postpone home ownership in life later than previously seen. These potential buyers live with parents or share rentals. We are starting to see them now re-enter the rental and first-time buyer markets. The average age of our first-time buyer changed from 29 to 37 years over the past five years.  Older Americans impacted by underfunded retirement plans due to the economic downturn rent houses too.

Rental prices in New Jersey rose ~ 5% in 2017, averaging nearly $1,500 per unit. Current vacancy rates in central New Jersey rose to 3.6% with the nation at 4.5%.

The drop in New Jersey’s homeownership contributes to rental demand.  A 12+ year trend shows a decrease from  71% to 64%.  This 7% decrease compared to an 8% national decrease contributes to the slower recovery of home prices in the state and adds over 200,000 additional renters in our state.  Households with no children stands at 65%, reflected in our school population.

 

New Jersey Foreclosures:

New Jersey continues to face high foreclosure rate filings. Other states have begun to, or already have recovered. In tight real estate market, these foreclosures sell at a small discount.

Note:  Figures vary by local market, especially those walloped by Hurricane Sandy three years ago and rural and urban areas. We rank #2 in the country at 3.4%, led by only FL with 5.1% (mostly hurricane-related) and followed by NY, LA, MS, ME, TX, DE, MD, and PA.  The national baseline number sits at ~ 1.7%.

2017 foreclosure filings decreased slightly to 70,150+ or -5%, putting pressure on home prices in concentrated areas.  Base on the first three months of results 2018 could fall another 6% to around 66,000 filings.

 

Tax cuts and Jobs Act effect:

Three specific areas are evident:

  1. State and Local Taxes (SALT) are now limited to a $10,000 deduction going forward.
  2. Mortgage and Interest Deductions (MID) are now limited to a maximum principal balance of $750,000.
  3. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) Loan interest deductions is for the most part eliminated

Although it is too early to tell how these areas will impact real estate values in New Jersey, they are sure to have some impact. New Jersey is one of the highest taxed states in the union, and our home values are also some of the highest. How this affects each of us on an individual basis needs to be better understood as there is some trade-off such as higher deductions and overall lower income brackets.

Obviously, the higher income luxury market is probably most at risk.  But how it affects the overall incentive to own a home is still unfolding.

There were several proposals on the new tax code, and most consumers are not up to date on what actually passed.  It will take time for this information to be digested.

It also is evident that the out-migration from New Jersey to other more affordable states has continued.

In a nutshell too early to tell, but there will be some very high-end people affected, and that will, in turn, affect the market…

This effect might slow the price growth in NJ and even turn into a deficit in some more affluent areas.

 

Real Estate Market Recap 

Economic conditions:

  • 2017 was the seventh straight year of 2 million + job gains.
  • Although improving in 2018, the NJ job situation had been declining for the past two years.
  • At 4.6% unemployment, NJ is almost 20% above the national average which is currently 4.1%.
  • The best paying and most attractive jobs are in NYC.
  • Interest rates have already risen .5% in recent months are forecasted to rise another .5% by year’s end, taking almost 10% away from buyers buying power.
  • And, house prices are rising 3+ % in the popular housing price points further exasperating the situation.
  • Baby boomers are choosing to “stay put’ rather than “move up.”
  • And there is no entry level construction going on in the area.
  • Foreclosures are on the decline and help to offset fewer listings.
  • Also, there is confidence that the new tax and jobs act will further stimulate the economy with more jobs
  • The new tax rules appear only to affect the higher upper-end buyers.

Changes in lifestyle:

  • Average age at marriage is now in the late 30’s (up 7 years from just a decade ago).
  • Families are usually having only one to two children.
  • 65% of all NJ homes have no children of school age.
  • 50% do not have more than 1 person in them.
  • Demand for larger houses has diminished.
  • As a result of the job situation, buyers are gravitating to areas within 15 miles of NYC with good mass transportation systems.
  • 80% of consumers still perceive homeownership as part of the American Dream.
  • It is just what they want to buy (or rent) that has changed.
  • Builders have been thinking 4 BR center hall colonials on 1+ acre in the country.
  • Buyers are thinking luxury hi-rise close to mass transportation and work.
  • And, for the first time in history, Hunterdon County has reported more deaths than births.

Market conditions:

  • Consumer confidence remains extremely high nation-wide based on the job and stock market increases.
  • This confidence is reflected in buyer traffic being up at open houses
  • Millennials make up 24% of our current homeowners with more room for expansion at the lower end of the market when adequate inventory supply materializes.
  • Central New Jersey’s trend for 2016 and early 2017 showed a surge in home sales but price increases only in houses clustered in < $500,000 market where the first-time buyers and Millennials are focused.
  • The >$600K market holds steady to diminishing slightly, depending on location and price.  Often when a >$600K property goes on the market, it’s competing with a >$700K that needs to sell quickly (etc.). The extreme high-end market has seen some appreciation in 2018 so far.
  • Minimal new construction, lack of entry-level new housing and COAH restrictions add additional value to the current inventory.
  • Analysts five-year forecast indicates slow and steady price growth at an annual 3 to 4%.
  • There is an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county (both sitting with about 25 % less inventory than just two years ago and 4 to 10% less than last year). In our more popular price points and locations, this holds back sales.  In general, we have only about 50% of the inventory that we had in 2011.
  • In 2017 prices rose ~ averaging just over 3.5% and depending on price points and locations.  2018 promises to be almost as strong (without factoring in any tax impact).
  • Mortgage delinquency is normalizing.

Forecast:

  • The economy will continue to prosper with no recession in sight.
  • Interest rates will Climb to about 5% by year-end further decreasing buying power.
  • Home prices will rise by an average of another 3+% during that same period (this will depend on your price point and location).
  • Supply will remain tight in residential real estate.
  • Many new jobs will result from the Tax and Jobs act.
  • Some decrease in home ownership could result in the raising of the standard deduction.
  • Some high-end fall-out will result in residential real estate from the SALT and mortgage interest changes in the Tax and Jobs act.
  • The commercial real estate market will flourish as a result.
  • Mid-term elections effect is a total unknown at this point.
  • People in their home > 10 years have very positive home equity built up, and a more significant portion of payments applies to principle.  Increases in selling prices should eventually motivate people to make changes in their lifestyle or even start a new business with the extra equity cash.

 

Call me at 908-238-0118 to discuss your situation, and I’ll put my expertise and access to big data to work for you.

Note:  Presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. I took reasonable precautions presenting this information. Please consult with a professional sales agent and take no actions based on my opinions, gathered trends, and statistics.  I assume no liability.


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Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018 – Warren Township Edition

 

Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018 – Warren Township Edition

Real Estate Market Conditions

Get ahead of the real estate market economic and behavior drivers in Somerset County, New Jersey with Coldwell Banker Residential Broker sales associate, Joe Peters.

This Market Update will not only show you what is happening in your local market area, but it will also explain why it is happening and what is contributing to these results.

 

“What” it is happening

Somerset County New Jersey Real Estate Market Conditions (including):

  1. Branchburg
  2. Bridgewater
  3. Somerville
  4. Hillsborough 
  5. Warren
  6. Watchung

Based on the last full month’s contract sales, statistics show a supply of approximately three months. Normal market conditions average four to six months in Somerset County.  Units going under contract averaged 46 days on the market. 423 properties went “under contract” in April, up from 413 in the prior month. Newly listed properties in the same period totaled 635.

Somerset County Inventory Breakdown By Price For Last Month:

  New Listings Under Contract Active Listings Month’s Supply
Condos/Town Houses * 179 129 389 3
Over 55 Communities* 13 14 42 3
$000K to $199K 38 40 89 2
$200K to $299K 109 100 238 2
$300K to $399K 104 76 196 3
$400K to $499K 70 44 143 3
$500K to $599K 75 46 141 3
$600K to $699K 49 36 118 3
$700K to $799K 62 26 128 5
$800K to $899K 25 19 83 4
$900K to $999K 26 13 81 6
$1,000K and Up 77 23 258 11
Totals for April 635 423 1475 3
Average Price $662,497 $491,040 -25.9%
Average Days on Market 46
* Included in $ breakdowns

Somerset County Sales Breakdown Overview:

  • 51 % of sales in houses < $500,000
  • 37 %of sales in houses > $500,000 and < $1,000,000
  • 12 % percent of total sales (or 23 in total) in houses >$1,000,000

Somerset County Inventory Breakdown By Municipality For Last Month:

Active Listings Under Contract Month’s Supply
Bedminster Twp 59 14 4
Bernards Twp 167 46 4
Bernardsville 92 11 8
Bound Brook 23 4 6
Branchburg Twp 64 15 4
Bridgewater Twp 190 61 3
Far Hills Boro 16 1 16
Franklin Twp 194 73 3
Green Brook 35 11 3
Hillsborough 147 59 2
Manville Boro 36 11 3
Millstone Boro 3 1 3
Montgomery Twp 142 24 6
North Plainfield 52 32 2
Peapack Gladstone 14 4 4
Raritan Boro 13 7 2
Rocky Hill Boro 3 1 3
Somerville Boro 19 12 2
South Bound Brook 14 10 1
Warren Twp 140 19 7
Watchung Boro 52 7 7
Totals 1475 423 3

Somerset County Sales Breakdown Detailed:

No area in Somerset County reported no sales in the past month

Three areas reported one or two sales each last month

  • Far Hills
  • Millstone
  • Rocky Hill

Hotspots:

  • Bernards – 46 sales
  • Bridgewater – 61 sales
  • Franklin – 73 sales
  • Hillsborough – 59 sales
  • Montgomery – 24 sales

These hotspot areas equaled 62% of the sales last month. The average new listing coming on the market last month neared $662,497 The average price of a unit going “under contract” neared $491,040 (26% less).

Warren Township Statistics:

  • There are 140 homes for sale in Warren Township as of this writing.
  • Of the 140 homes for sale, 14 are community properties (such as town houses and condos) and four are in our 55+ communities
  • The average list price for all listings in Warren Township is $1,089,937.
  • There were 47 new listings in Warren Township last month with an average list price of $881,032.
  • There were also nineteen homes that have gone under contract in the past 30 days with an average list price of $924,884 and 53 days on market.
  • Giving us 7+ months of inventory
  • Call for additional details

Note: To get an accurate price point for your property, contact me. Coldwell Banker’s big data technology capabilities will put you at an advantage. Plus, we can now tell you where people are moving in to your area from and market to that area directly. Houses priced and marketed accurately sell fast, especially with a real estate industry veteran and local expert helping you navigate the process.

 

The initial section of this Market Report reported on “What” is happening.

This section will focus on “Why” it is happening

 

New Jersey’s Economic Drivers:

New Jersey Home Sales:

Home purchase demand for in the first two months of 2018 in New Jersey reached a new record and representing a 2% increase over the prior year. In March they went down by 6% netting a break even for the quarter.

The effect of the new Tax and Jobs Act is still being digested and may slow things down while this takes place.

Activity concentrates in the <$400,000 market (which actually pulled back a little in March due to lack of inventory) where Millennial buyers transition into home ownership. During the same period, all housing sales showed increases across all other price points showing confidence in the new administration’s plans on taxes and deregulation. There has also been an improvement at the very high end in towns where rail service to Manhattan is available.

At the same time, the number of homes offered for sale in New Jersey remained low and had recently decreased. The supply decreased by ~ 4,500 homes, compared to a year ago.  Currently, ~36,000 fewer homes are on the market compared to the 2011 peak.

Current unsold inventory in New Jersey varies widely by county with some having only 2.5 months.  no county presently has more than 8 months supply.

We have an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county in our more popular price points and locations.

Hunterdon and Somerset County has  10 and 4% less inventory respectively than a year ago.  And, those counties have about 24 and 19% less inventory respectively than two years ago.

The fear of increasing interest rates based on future increases and the Fed’s slightly loosening lending standards are driving the current market activity.

 

Interest Rates:

The economy is strengthening, and Interest rates at the end of April rose slightly to just over 4.5% for a 30-year conventional mortgage (highest since 2014). A fifteen-year conventional mortgage rests at just under the 4% range. Five-year arms are just under the 3.75% range.

Consumer fears of steadily rising interest rates and slowly rising home prices are driving the current market demand. The Fed already instituted initial increases in rates and are talking about additional ones. Industry analysts forecast to be nearly 5% by the end of 2018, and 5.5% by the end of 2019. If the rate increases from 4% to 5%, buyers will lose 9% of their buying power and have already lost .6% with rate increases over the past few months.

Combine this  with the steadily increasing prices and consumer confidence, and you have what is driving our current market activity

 

National Job Front:

US unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, the lowest it has been in over eighteen years! This trend is expected to continue as a result of the recent tax reform.

On the national level the US added 605,000+ jobs in January thru March of 2018 and is trending towards 2.5 million added jobs by year-end.

And the GDP has grown by 41% over the last four quarters.

 

Consumer confidence is the highest since 2004. Great news for the housing industry!

 

New Jersey Job Front:

NJ unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%, bolstering consumer confidence remains high in NJ as well.

And, 33,500+ jobs were added in NJ in the first three months of 2018 which was a significant improvement over 2017 and if it continues, NJ could add nearly 150,000 jobs by year end.

The level of jobs created was at a much higher level than in the past several years (a silver lining?).

It also should be noted that these jobs are concentrated in the northern half of the state.

 

Rental Market Trends:

We still have an extremely tight rental market!

Prior restrictive mortgage standards nudged Millennials to postpone home ownership in life later than previously seen. These potential buyers live with parents or share rentals. We are starting to see them now re-enter the rental and first-time buyer markets. The average age of our first-time buyer changed from 29 to 37 years over the past five years.  Older Americans impacted by underfunded retirement plans due to the economic downturn rent houses too.

Rental prices in New Jersey rose ~ 5% in 2017, averaging nearly $1,500 per unit. Current vacancy rates in central New Jersey rose to 3.6% with the nation at 4.5%.

The drop in New Jersey’s homeownership contributes to rental demand.  A 12+ year trend shows a decrease from  71% to 64%.  This 7% decrease compared to an 8% national decrease contributes to the slower recovery of home prices in the state and adds over 200,000 additional renters in our state.  Households with no children stands at 65%, reflected in our school population.

 

New Jersey Foreclosures:

New Jersey continues to face high foreclosure rate filings. Other states have begun to, or already have recovered. In tight real estate market, these foreclosures sell at a small discount.

Note:  Figures vary by local market, especially those walloped by Hurricane Sandy three years ago and rural and urban areas. We rank #2 in the country at 3.4%, led by only FL with 5.1% (mostly hurricane-related) and followed by NY, LA, MS, ME, TX, DE, MD, and PA.  The national baseline number sits at ~ 1.7%.

2017 foreclosure filings decreased slightly to 70,150+ or -5%, putting pressure on home prices in concentrated areas.  Base on the first three months of results 2018 could fall another 6% to around 66,000 filings.

 

Tax cuts and Jobs Act effect:

Three specific areas are evident:

  1. State and Local Taxes (SALT) are now limited to a $10,000 deduction going forward.
  2. Mortgage and Interest Deductions (MID) are now limited to a maximum principal balance of $750,000.
  3. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) Loan interest deductions is for the most part eliminated

Although it is too early to tell how these areas will impact real estate values in New Jersey, they are sure to have some impact. New Jersey is one of the highest taxed states in the union, and our home values are also some of the highest. How this affects each of us on an individual basis needs to be better understood as there is some trade-off such as higher deductions and overall lower income brackets.

Obviously, the higher income luxury market is probably most at risk.  But how it affects the overall incentive to own a home is still unfolding.

There were several proposals on the new tax code, and most consumers are not up to date on what actually passed.  It will take time for this information to be digested.

It also is evident that the out-migration from New Jersey to other more affordable states has continued.

In a nutshell too early to tell, but there will be some very high-end people affected, and that will, in turn, affect the market…

This effect might slow the price growth in NJ and even turn into a deficit in some more affluent areas.

 

Real Estate Market Recap 

Economic conditions:

  • 2017 was the seventh straight year of 2 million + job gains.
  • Although improving in 2018, the NJ job situation had been declining for the past two years.
  • At 4.6% unemployment, NJ is almost 20% above the national average which is currently 4.1%.
  • The best paying and most attractive jobs are in NYC.
  • Interest rates have already risen .5% in recent months are forecasted to rise another .5% by year’s end, taking almost 10% away from buyers buying power.
  • And, house prices are rising 3+ % in the popular housing price points further exasperating the situation.
  • Baby boomers are choosing to “stay put’ rather than “move up.”
  • And there is no entry level construction going on in the area.
  • Foreclosures are on the decline and help to offset fewer listings.
  • Also, there is confidence that the new tax and jobs act will further stimulate the economy with more jobs
  • The new tax rules appear only to affect the higher upper-end buyers.

Changes in lifestyle:

  • Average age at marriage is now in the late 30’s (up 7 years from just a decade ago).
  • Families are usually having only one to two children.
  • 65% of all NJ homes have no children of school age.
  • 50% do not have more than 1 person in them.
  • Demand for larger houses has diminished.
  • As a result of the job situation, buyers are gravitating to areas within 15 miles of NYC with good mass transportation systems.
  • 80% of consumers still perceive homeownership as part of the American Dream.
  • It is just what they want to buy (or rent) that has changed.
  • Builders have been thinking 4 BR center hall colonials on 1+ acre in the country.
  • Buyers are thinking luxury hi-rise close to mass transportation and work.
  • And, for the first time in history, Hunterdon County has reported more deaths than births.

Market conditions:

  • Consumer confidence remains extremely high nation-wide based on the job and stock market increases.
  • This confidence is reflected in buyer traffic being up at open houses
  • Millennials make up 24% of our current homeowners with more room for expansion at the lower end of the market when adequate inventory supply materializes.
  • Central New Jersey’s trend for 2016 and early 2017 showed a surge in home sales but price increases only in houses clustered in < $500,000 market where the first-time buyers and Millennials are focused.
  • The >$600K market holds steady to diminishing slightly, depending on location and price.  Often when a >$600K property goes on the market, it’s competing with a >$700K that needs to sell quickly (etc.). The extreme high-end market has seen some appreciation in 2018 so far.
  • Minimal new construction, lack of entry-level new housing and COAH restrictions add additional value to the current inventory.
  • Analysts five-year forecast indicates slow and steady price growth at an annual 3 to 4%.
  • There is an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county (both sitting with about 25 % less inventory than just two years ago and 4 to 10% less than last year). In our more popular price points and locations, this holds back sales.  In general, we have only about 50% of the inventory that we had in 2011.
  • In 2017 prices rose ~ averaging just over 3.5% and depending on price points and locations.  2018 promises to be almost as strong (without factoring in any tax impact).
  • Mortgage delinquency is normalizing.

Forecast:

  • The economy will continue to prosper with no recession in sight.
  • Interest rates will Climb to about 5% by year-end further decreasing buying power.
  • Home prices will rise by an average of another 3+% during that same period (this will depend on your price point and location).
  • Supply will remain tight in residential real estate.
  • Many new jobs will result from the Tax and Jobs act.
  • Some decrease in home ownership could result in the raising of the standard deduction.
  • Some high-end fall-out will result in residential real estate from the SALT and mortgage interest changes in the Tax and Jobs act.
  • The commercial real estate market will flourish as a result.
  • Mid-term elections effect is a total unknown at this point.
  • People in their home > 10 years have very positive home equity built up, and a more significant portion of payments applies to principle.  Increases in selling prices should eventually motivate people to make changes in their lifestyle or even start a new business with the extra equity cash.

 

Call me at 908-238-0118 to discuss your situation, and I’ll put my expertise and access to big data to work for you.

Note:  Presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. I took reasonable precautions presenting this information. Please consult with a professional sales agent and take no actions based on my opinions, gathered trends, and statistics.  I assume no liability.


Presented as a public service by:

Joe Peters Logo
 


Click Here to 

Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018 – Canal Walk Edition

 

Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018 – Canal Walk Edition

Real Estate Market Conditions

Get ahead of the real estate market economic and behavior drivers in Somerset County, New Jersey with Coldwell Banker Residential Broker sales associate, Joe Peters.

This Market Update will not only show you what is happening in your local market area, but it will also explain why it is happening and what is contributing to these results.

 

“What” it is happening

Somerset County New Jersey Real Estate Market Conditions (including):

  1. Branchburg
  2. Bridgewater
  3. Somerville
  4. Hillsborough 
  5. Warren
  6. Watchung

Based on the last full month’s contract sales, statistics show a supply of approximately three months. Normal market conditions average four to six months in Somerset County.  Units going under contract averaged 46 days on the market. 423 properties went “under contract” in April, up from 413 in the prior month. Newly listed properties in the same period totaled 635.

Somerset County Inventory Breakdown By Price For Last Month:

  New Listings Under Contract Active Listings Month’s Supply
Condos/Town Houses * 179 129 389 3
Over 55 Communities* 13 14 42 3
$000K to $199K 38 40 89 2
$200K to $299K 109 100 238 2
$300K to $399K 104 76 196 3
$400K to $499K 70 44 143 3
$500K to $599K 75 46 141 3
$600K to $699K 49 36 118 3
$700K to $799K 62 26 128 5
$800K to $899K 25 19 83 4
$900K to $999K 26 13 81 6
$1,000K and Up 77 23 258 11
Totals for April 635 423 1475 3
Average Price $662,497 $491,040 -25.9%
Average Days on Market 46
* Included in $ breakdowns

Somerset County Sales Breakdown Overview:

  • 51 % of sales in houses < $500,000
  • 37 %of sales in houses > $500,000 and < $1,000,000
  • 12 % percent of total sales (or 23 in total) in houses >$1,000,000

Somerset County Inventory Breakdown By Municipality For Last Month:

Active Listings Under Contract Month’s Supply
Bedminster Twp 59 14 4
Bernards Twp 167 46 4
Bernardsville 92 11 8
Bound Brook 23 4 6
Branchburg Twp 64 15 4
Bridgewater Twp 190 61 3
Far Hills Boro 16 1 16
Franklin Twp 194 73 3
Green Brook 35 11 3
Hillsborough 147 59 2
Manville Boro 36 11 3
Millstone Boro 3 1 3
Montgomery Twp 142 24 6
North Plainfield 52 32 2
Peapack Gladstone 14 4 4
Raritan Boro 13 7 2
Rocky Hill Boro 3 1 3
Somerville Boro 19 12 2
South Bound Brook 14 10 1
Warren Twp 140 19 7
Watchung Boro 52 7 7
Totals 1475 423 3

Somerset County Sales Breakdown Detailed:

No area in Somerset County reported no sales in the past month

Three areas reported one or two sales each last month

  • Far Hills
  • Millstone
  • Rocky Hill

Hotspots:

  • Bernards – 46 sales
  • Bridgewater – 61 sales
  • Franklin – 73 sales
  • Hillsborough – 59 sales
  • Montgomery – 24 sales

These hotspot areas equaled 62% of the sales last month. The average new listing coming on the market last month neared $662,497 The average price of a unit going “under contract” neared $491,040 (26% less).

Canal Walk Statistics:

  • Canal Walk offers one floor units, town houses and various models of single family units
  • There are 7 homes currently for sale in Canal Walk as of this writing with an average list price of $412,800.
  • Of the 7, four are Enclave single floor units
  • There was 2 new listing this month with an average list price of $397,450.
  • One unit has gone under contract in the past 30 days with an average list price of $459,900 with the average days on the market of 130.
  • Giving us a little over 3 months of inventory
  • Close to 50 units changed hands over the past 12 months ranging from the low $300’s in to the low $600’s
  • The actual price per unit varies by type, model, location and upgrades
  • Call for more details…

Note: To get an accurate price point for your property, contact me. Coldwell Banker’s big data technology capabilities will put you at an advantage. Plus, we can now tell you where people are moving in to your area from and market to that area directly. Houses priced and marketed accurately sell fast, especially with a real estate industry veteran and local expert helping you navigate the process.

 

The initial section of this Market Report reported on “What” is happening.

This section will focus on “Why” it is happening

 

New Jersey’s Economic Drivers:

New Jersey Home Sales:

Home purchase demand for in the first two months of 2018 in New Jersey reached a new record and representing a 2% increase over the prior year. In March they went down by 6% netting a break even for the quarter.

The effect of the new Tax and Jobs Act is still being digested and may slow things down while this takes place.

Activity concentrates in the <$400,000 market (which actually pulled back a little in March due to lack of inventory) where Millennial buyers transition into home ownership. During the same period, all housing sales showed increases across all other price points showing confidence in the new administration’s plans on taxes and deregulation. There has also been an improvement at the very high end in towns where rail service to Manhattan is available.

At the same time, the number of homes offered for sale in New Jersey remained low and had recently decreased. The supply decreased by ~ 4,500 homes, compared to a year ago.  Currently, ~36,000 fewer homes are on the market compared to the 2011 peak.

Current unsold inventory in New Jersey varies widely by county with some having only 2.5 months.  no county presently has more than 8 months supply.

We have an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county in our more popular price points and locations.

Hunterdon and Somerset County has  10 and 4% less inventory respectively than a year ago.  And, those counties have about 24 and 19% less inventory respectively than two years ago.

The fear of increasing interest rates based on future increases and the Fed’s slightly loosening lending standards are driving the current market activity.

 

Interest Rates:

The economy is strengthening, and Interest rates at the end of April rose slightly to just over 4.5% for a 30-year conventional mortgage (highest since 2014). A fifteen-year conventional mortgage rests at just under the 4% range. Five-year arms are just under the 3.75% range.

Consumer fears of steadily rising interest rates and slowly rising home prices are driving the current market demand. The Fed already instituted initial increases in rates and are talking about additional ones. Industry analysts forecast to be nearly 5% by the end of 2018, and 5.5% by the end of 2019. If the rate increases from 4% to 5%, buyers will lose 9% of their buying power and have already lost .6% with rate increases over the past few months.

Combine this  with the steadily increasing prices and consumer confidence, and you have what is driving our current market activity

 

National Job Front:

US unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, the lowest it has been in over eighteen years! This trend is expected to continue as a result of the recent tax reform.

On the national level the US added 605,000+ jobs in January thru March of 2018 and is trending towards 2.5 million added jobs by year-end.

And the GDP has grown by 41% over the last four quarters.

 

Consumer confidence is the highest since 2004. Great news for the housing industry!

 

New Jersey Job Front:

NJ unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%, bolstering consumer confidence remains high in NJ as well.

And, 33,500+ jobs were added in NJ in the first three months of 2018 which was a significant improvement over 2017 and if it continues, NJ could add nearly 150,000 jobs by year end.

The level of jobs created was at a much higher level than in the past several years (a silver lining?).

It also should be noted that these jobs are concentrated in the northern half of the state.

 

Rental Market Trends:

We still have an extremely tight rental market!

Prior restrictive mortgage standards nudged Millennials to postpone home ownership in life later than previously seen. These potential buyers live with parents or share rentals. We are starting to see them now re-enter the rental and first-time buyer markets. The average age of our first-time buyer changed from 29 to 37 years over the past five years.  Older Americans impacted by underfunded retirement plans due to the economic downturn rent houses too.

Rental prices in New Jersey rose ~ 5% in 2017, averaging nearly $1,500 per unit. Current vacancy rates in central New Jersey rose to 3.6% with the nation at 4.5%.

The drop in New Jersey’s homeownership contributes to rental demand.  A 12+ year trend shows a decrease from  71% to 64%.  This 7% decrease compared to an 8% national decrease contributes to the slower recovery of home prices in the state and adds over 200,000 additional renters in our state.  Households with no children stands at 65%, reflected in our school population.

 

New Jersey Foreclosures:

New Jersey continues to face high foreclosure rate filings. Other states have begun to, or already have recovered. In tight real estate market, these foreclosures sell at a small discount.

Note:  Figures vary by local market, especially those walloped by Hurricane Sandy three years ago and rural and urban areas. We rank #2 in the country at 3.4%, led by only FL with 5.1% (mostly hurricane-related) and followed by NY, LA, MS, ME, TX, DE, MD, and PA.  The national baseline number sits at ~ 1.7%.

2017 foreclosure filings decreased slightly to 70,150+ or -5%, putting pressure on home prices in concentrated areas.  Base on the first three months of results 2018 could fall another 6% to around 66,000 filings.

 

Tax cuts and Jobs Act effect:

Three specific areas are evident:

  1. State and Local Taxes (SALT) are now limited to a $10,000 deduction going forward.
  2. Mortgage and Interest Deductions (MID) are now limited to a maximum principal balance of $750,000.
  3. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) Loan interest deductions is for the most part eliminated

Although it is too early to tell how these areas will impact real estate values in New Jersey, they are sure to have some impact. New Jersey is one of the highest taxed states in the union, and our home values are also some of the highest. How this affects each of us on an individual basis needs to be better understood as there is some trade-off such as higher deductions and overall lower income brackets.

Obviously, the higher income luxury market is probably most at risk.  But how it affects the overall incentive to own a home is still unfolding.

There were several proposals on the new tax code, and most consumers are not up to date on what actually passed.  It will take time for this information to be digested.

It also is evident that the out-migration from New Jersey to other more affordable states has continued.

In a nutshell too early to tell, but there will be some very high-end people affected, and that will, in turn, affect the market…

This effect might slow the price growth in NJ and even turn into a deficit in some more affluent areas.

 

Real Estate Market Recap 

Economic conditions:

  • 2017 was the seventh straight year of 2 million + job gains.
  • Although improving in 2018, the NJ job situation had been declining for the past two years.
  • At 4.6% unemployment, NJ is almost 20% above the national average which is currently 4.1%.
  • The best paying and most attractive jobs are in NYC.
  • Interest rates have already risen .5% in recent months are forecasted to rise another .5% by year’s end, taking almost 10% away from buyers buying power.
  • And, house prices are rising 3+ % in the popular housing price points further exasperating the situation.
  • Baby boomers are choosing to “stay put’ rather than “move up.”
  • And there is no entry level construction going on in the area.
  • Foreclosures are on the decline and help to offset fewer listings.
  • Also, there is confidence that the new tax and jobs act will further stimulate the economy with more jobs
  • The new tax rules appear only to affect the higher upper-end buyers.

Changes in lifestyle:

  • Average age at marriage is now in the late 30’s (up 7 years from just a decade ago).
  • Families are usually having only one to two children.
  • 65% of all NJ homes have no children of school age.
  • 50% do not have more than 1 person in them.
  • Demand for larger houses has diminished.
  • As a result of the job situation, buyers are gravitating to areas within 15 miles of NYC with good mass transportation systems.
  • 80% of consumers still perceive homeownership as part of the American Dream.
  • It is just what they want to buy (or rent) that has changed.
  • Builders have been thinking 4 BR center hall colonials on 1+ acre in the country.
  • Buyers are thinking luxury hi-rise close to mass transportation and work.
  • And, for the first time in history, Hunterdon County has reported more deaths than births.

Market conditions:

  • Consumer confidence remains extremely high nation-wide based on the job and stock market increases.
  • This confidence is reflected in buyer traffic being up at open houses
  • Millennials make up 24% of our current homeowners with more room for expansion at the lower end of the market when adequate inventory supply materializes.
  • Central New Jersey’s trend for 2016 and early 2017 showed a surge in home sales but price increases only in houses clustered in < $500,000 market where the first-time buyers and Millennials are focused.
  • The >$600K market holds steady to diminishing slightly, depending on location and price.  Often when a >$600K property goes on the market, it’s competing with a >$700K that needs to sell quickly (etc.). The extreme high-end market has seen some appreciation in 2018 so far.
  • Minimal new construction, lack of entry-level new housing and COAH restrictions add additional value to the current inventory.
  • Analysts five-year forecast indicates slow and steady price growth at an annual 3 to 4%.
  • There is an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county (both sitting with about 25 % less inventory than just two years ago and 4 to 10% less than last year). In our more popular price points and locations, this holds back sales.  In general, we have only about 50% of the inventory that we had in 2011.
  • In 2017 prices rose ~ averaging just over 3.5% and depending on price points and locations.  2018 promises to be almost as strong (without factoring in any tax impact).
  • Mortgage delinquency is normalizing.

Forecast:

  • The economy will continue to prosper with no recession in sight.
  • Interest rates will Climb to about 5% by year-end further decreasing buying power.
  • Home prices will rise by an average of another 3+% during that same period (this will depend on your price point and location).
  • Supply will remain tight in residential real estate.
  • Many new jobs will result from the Tax and Jobs act.
  • Some decrease in home ownership could result in the raising of the standard deduction.
  • Some high-end fall-out will result in residential real estate from the SALT and mortgage interest changes in the Tax and Jobs act.
  • The commercial real estate market will flourish as a result.
  • Mid-term elections effect is a total unknown at this point.
  • People in their home > 10 years have very positive home equity built up, and a more significant portion of payments applies to principle.  Increases in selling prices should eventually motivate people to make changes in their lifestyle or even start a new business with the extra equity cash.

 

Call me at 908-238-0118 to discuss your situation, and I’ll put my expertise and access to big data to work for you.

Note:  Presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. I took reasonable precautions presenting this information. Please consult with a professional sales agent and take no actions based on my opinions, gathered trends, and statistics.  I assume no liability.


Presented as a public service by:

Joe Peters Logo
 


Click Here to 

Hunterdon County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018

Hunterdon County’s Real Estate Market Conditions | May of 2018

Hunterdon County's Real Estate Market Conditions

Get ahead of the real estate market economic and behavior drivers in Hunterdon County, New Jersey with Coldwell Banker Residential Broker sales associate, Joe Peters.

This Market Update will not only show you what is happening in your local market area, but it will also explain why it is happening and what is contributing to these results.

What is happening

 

Hunterdon County New Jersey Real Estate Market Conditions (including):

  1. Clinton Township
  2. Flemington
  3. Raritan Township
  4. Readington Township
  5. Clinton

Based on the last full month’s contract sales, statistics show a supply of approximately four months. Normal market conditions average four to six months in Hunterdon County.  Units going under contract averaged 64 days on the market. 206 properties went “under contract” in April, up from 186 in the prior month. Newly listed properties in the same period totaled 310.

Hunterdon County Inventory Breakdown By Price For Last Month:

New Listings Under Contract Active Listings Month’s Supply
Condos/Town Houses * 53 44 120 3
Over 55 Communities * 1 4 15 4
$000K to $199K 32 34 96 3
$200K to $299K 43 33 113 3
$300K to $399K 49 46 107 2
$400K to $499K 48 38 107 3
$500K to $599K 49 23 131 6
$600K to $699K 42 16 103 6
$700K to $799K 22 8 50 6
$800K to $899K 9 5 27 5
$900K to $999K 5 3 23 8
$1,000K and Up 11 1 67 67
Totals for April 310 207 824 4
Average Price $499,433 $410,775 -17.8%
Average DOM 64
* Included in $ breakdowns

Hunterdon County Sales Breakdown Overview:

  • 73 % of sales in houses < $500,000
  • 27 % of sales in houses > $500,000
  • 08 % percent of total sales (or 17 in total) in houses >$700,000

Hunterdon County Inventory Breakdown By Municipality For Last Month:

Active Listings Under Contract Month’s Supply
Alexandria Twp. 36 9 4
Bethlehem Twp. 31 8 4
Bloomsbury Boro. 15 2 8
Califon Boro. 6 1 6
Clinton Town 19 5 4
Clinton Twp. 95 20 5
Delaware Twp. 35 6 6
East Amwell Twp. 25 7 4
Flemington Boro. 19 5 4
Franklin Twp. 21 3 7
Frenchtown Boro. 23 3 8
Glen Gardner Boro. 10 5 2
Hampton Boro 11 5 2
High Bridge Boro. 18 8 2
Holland twp. 17 7 2
Kingwood Twp. 25 4 6
Lambertville City 28 8 4
Lebanon Boro. 5 1 5
Lebanon Twp. 35 7 5
Milford Boro. 11 3 4
RaritanTwp. 128 38 3
Readington Twp. 88 28 3
Stockton Boro. 5 0
Tewksbury Twp. 79 14 6
Union Twp. 30 7 4
West Amwell Twp. 9 3 3
Totals 824 207 4

Hunterdon County Sales Breakdown Detailed:

One area in Hunterdon County reported no sales in the past month:

  • Stockton

Seven areas reported one or 2 sales each last month:

  • Bloombury
  • Califon
  • Lebanon Boro

Hotspots:

  • Clinton/Clinton Township – 25 sales
  • Raritan Township – 38 sales
  • Readington Township – 28 sales

Hotspot areas equaled 44% of the sales last month. The average new listing coming on the market last month neared $499,433. The average price of a unit going “under contract” neared $410,775 (18% less).

Note: To get an accurate price point for your property, contact me. Coldwell Banker’s big data technology capabilities will put you at an advantage. Plus, we can now tell you where people are moving into your area from and market to that area directly.  Houses priced and marketed accurately sell fast, especially with a real estate industry veteran and local expert helping you navigate the process.

 

The initial section of this Market Report reported on “What” is happening.

This section will focus on “Why” it is happening

 

New Jersey’s Economic Drivers:

New Jersey Home Sales:

Home purchase demand for in the first two months of 2018 in New Jersey reached a new record and representing a 2% increase over the prior year. In March they went down by 6% netting a break even for the quarter.

The effect of the new Tax and Jobs Act is still being digested and may slow things down while this takes place.

Activity concentrates in the <$400,000 market (which actually pulled back a little in March due to lack of inventory) where Millennial buyers transition into home ownership. During the same period, all housing sales showed increases across all other price points showing confidence in the new administration’s plans on taxes and deregulation. There has also been an improvement at the very high end in towns where rail service to Manhattan is available.

At the same time, the number of homes offered for sale in New Jersey remained low and had recently decreased. The supply decreased by ~ 4,500 homes, compared to a year ago.  Currently, ~36,000 fewer homes are on the market compared to the 2011 peak.

Current unsold inventory in New Jersey varies widely by county with some having only 2.5 months.  no county presently has more than 8 months supply.

We have an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county in our more popular price points and locations.

Hunterdon and Somerset County has  10 and 4% less inventory respectively than a year ago.  And, those counties have about 24 and 19% less inventory respectively than two years ago.

The fear of increasing interest rates based on future increases and the Fed’s slightly loosening lending standards are driving the current market activity.

 

Interest Rates:

The economy is strengthening, and Interest rates at the end of April rose slightly to just over 4.5% for a 30-year conventional mortgage (highest since 2014). A fifteen-year conventional mortgage rests at just under the 4% range. Five-year arms are just under the 3.75% range.

Consumer fears of steadily rising interest rates and slowly rising home prices are driving the current market demand. The Fed already instituted initial increases in rates and are talking about additional ones. Industry analysts forecast to be nearly 5% by the end of 2018, and 5.5% by the end of 2019. If the rate increases from 4% to 5%, buyers will lose 9% of their buying power and have already lost .6% with rate increases over the past few months.

Combine this  with the steadily increasing prices and consumer confidence, and you have what is driving our current market activity

 

National Job Front:

US unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, the lowest it has been in over eighteen years! This trend is expected to continue as a result of the recent tax reform.

On the national level the US added 605,000+ jobs in January thru March of 2018 and is trending towards 2.5 million added jobs by year-end.

And the GDP has grown by 41% over the last four quarters.

 

Consumer confidence is the highest since 2004. Great news for the housing industry!

 

New Jersey Job Front:

NJ unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%, bolstering consumer confidence remains high in NJ as well.

And, 33,500+ jobs were added in NJ in the first three months of 2018 which was a significant improvement over 2017 and if it continues, NJ could add nearly 150,000 jobs by year end.

The level of jobs created was at a much higher level than in the past several years (a silver lining?).

It also should be noted that these jobs are concentrated in the northern half of the state.

 

Rental Market Trends:

We still have an extremely tight rental market!

Prior restrictive mortgage standards nudged Millennials to postpone home ownership in life later than previously seen. These potential buyers live with parents or share rentals. We are starting to see them now re-enter the rental and first-time buyer markets. The average age of our first-time buyer changed from 29 to 37 years over the past five years.  Older Americans impacted by underfunded retirement plans due to the economic downturn rent houses too.

Rental prices in New Jersey rose ~ 5% in 2017, averaging nearly $1,500 per unit. Current vacancy rates in central New Jersey rose to 3.6% with the nation at 4.5%.

The drop in New Jersey’s homeownership contributes to rental demand.  A 12+ year trend shows a decrease from  71% to 64%.  This 7% decrease compared to an 8% national decrease contributes to the slower recovery of home prices in the state and adds over 200,000 additional renters in our state.  Households with no children stands at 65%, reflected in our school population.

 

New Jersey Foreclosures:

New Jersey continues to face high foreclosure rate filings. Other states have begun to, or already have recovered. In tight real estate market, these foreclosures sell at a small discount.

Note:  Figures vary by local market, especially those walloped by Hurricane Sandy three years ago and rural and urban areas. We rank #2 in the country at 3.4%, led by only FL with 5.1% (mostly hurricane-related) and followed by NY, LA, MS, ME, TX, DE, MD, and PA.  The national baseline number sits at ~ 1.7%.

2017 foreclosure filings decreased slightly to 70,150+ or -5%, putting pressure on home prices in concentrated areas.  Base on the first three months of results 2018 could fall another 6% to around 66,000 filings.

 

Tax cuts and Jobs Act effect:

Three specific areas are evident:

  1. State and Local Taxes (SALT) are now limited to a $10,000 deduction going forward.
  2. Mortgage and Interest Deductions (MID) are now limited to a maximum principal balance of $750,000.
  3. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) Loan interest deductions is for the most part eliminated

Although it is too early to tell how these areas will impact real estate values in New Jersey, they are sure to have some impact. New Jersey is one of the highest taxed states in the union, and our home values are also some of the highest. How this affects each of us on an individual basis needs to be better understood as there is some trade-off such as higher deductions and overall lower income brackets.

Obviously, the higher income luxury market is probably most at risk.  But how it affects the overall incentive to own a home is still unfolding.

There were several proposals on the new tax code, and most consumers are not up to date on what actually passed.  It will take time for this information to be digested.

It also is evident that the out-migration from New Jersey to other more affordable states has continued.

In a nutshell too early to tell, but there will be some very high-end people affected, and that will, in turn, affect the market…

This effect might slow the price growth in NJ and even turn into a deficit in some more affluent areas.

 

Real Estate Market Recap 

Economic conditions:

  • 2017 was the seventh straight year of 2 million + job gains.
  • Although improving in 2018, the NJ job situation had been declining for the past two years.
  • At 4.6% unemployment, NJ is almost 20% above the national average which is currently 4.1%.
  • The best paying and most attractive jobs are in NYC.
  • Interest rates have already risen .5% in recent months are forecasted to rise another .5% by year’s end, taking almost 10% away from buyers buying power.
  • And, house prices are rising 3+ % in the popular housing price points further exasperating the situation.
  • Baby boomers are choosing to “stay put’ rather than “move up.”
  • And there is no entry level construction going on in the area.
  • Foreclosures are on the decline and help to offset fewer listings.
  • Also, there is confidence that the new tax and jobs act will further stimulate the economy with more jobs
  • The new tax rules appear only to affect the higher upper-end buyers.

Changes in lifestyle:

  • Average age at marriage is now in the late 30’s (up 7 years from just a decade ago).
  • Families are usually having only one to two children.
  • 65% of all NJ homes have no children of school age.
  • 50% do not have more than 1 person in them.
  • Demand for larger houses has diminished.
  • As a result of the job situation, buyers are gravitating to areas within 15 miles of NYC with good mass transportation systems.
  • 80% of consumers still perceive homeownership as part of the American Dream.
  • It is just what they want to buy (or rent) that has changed.
  • Builders have been thinking 4 BR center hall colonials on 1+ acre in the country.
  • Buyers are thinking luxury hi-rise close to mass transportation and work.
  • And, for the first time in history, Hunterdon County has reported more deaths than births.

Market conditions:

  • Consumer confidence remains extremely high nation-wide based on the job and stock market increases.
  • This confidence is reflected in buyer traffic being up at open houses
  • Millennials make up 24% of our current homeowners with more room for expansion at the lower end of the market when adequate inventory supply materializes.
  • Central New Jersey’s trend for 2016 and early 2017 showed a surge in home sales but price increases only in houses clustered in < $500,000 market where the first-time buyers and Millennials are focused.
  • The >$600K market holds steady to diminishing slightly, depending on location and price.  Often when a >$600K property goes on the market, it’s competing with a >$700K that needs to sell quickly (etc.). The extreme high-end market has seen some appreciation in 2018 so far.
  • Minimal new construction, lack of entry-level new housing and COAH restrictions add additional value to the current inventory.
  • Analysts five-year forecast indicates slow and steady price growth at an annual 3 to 4%.
  • There is an acute shortage of inventory in both Hunterdon and Somerset county (both sitting with about 25 % less inventory than just two years ago and 4 to 10% less than last year). In our more popular price points and locations, this holds back sales.  In general, we have only about 50% of the inventory that we had in 2011.
  • In 2017 prices rose ~ averaging just over 3.5% and depending on price points and locations.  2018 promises to be almost as strong (without factoring in any tax impact).
  • Mortgage delinquency is normalizing.

Forecast:

  • The economy will continue to prosper with no recession in sight.
  • Interest rates will Climb to about 5% by year-end further decreasing buying power.
  • Home prices will rise by an average of another 3+% during that same period (this will depend on your price point and location).
  • Supply will remain tight in residential real estate.
  • Many new jobs will result from the Tax and Jobs act.
  • Some decrease in home ownership could result in the raising of the standard deduction.
  • Some high-end fall-out will result in residential real estate from the SALT and mortgage interest changes in the Tax and Jobs act.
  • The commercial real estate market will flourish as a result.
  • Mid-term elections effect is a total unknown at this point.
  • People in their home > 10 years have very positive home equity built up, and a more significant portion of payments applies to principle.  Increases in selling prices should eventually motivate people to make changes in their lifestyle or even start a new business with the extra equity cash.

 

Call me at 908-238-0118 to discuss your situation, and I’ll put my expertise and access to big data to work for you.

Note:  Presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. I took reasonable precautions presenting this information. Please consult with a professional sales agent and take no actions based on my opinions, gathered trends, and statistics.  I assume no liability.


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