Hunterdon County December sales active with 104 homes sold
(Below is a market update on the real estate and property activity in Hunterdon County – including
Clinton Township, Flemington, Raritan Township, Readington Township and the Town of Clinton
This information is provided by courtesy of Hunterdon County Realtor Joe Peters.)
In December of 2016, 104 properties went “under contract” in Hunterdon County, down from the 123 “under contract” properties in the prior month. During that same period, 113 properties were newly listed. As a result, statistics compiled show an overall current supply of about 7 months (4 to 6 months is a normal market) for Hunterdon County, with an average of 101 days on the market for the units that were sold.
Sales broke down as follows:
- 78 percent of sales were in houses under $500,000
- Leaving 22 percent of sales were in houses more than $500,000
- And, only 12 percent of those sales (or 12 sales) were in houses more than $700,000
Five areas in Hunterdon County reported no sales at all in the past month:
- Glen Gardner
- Lebanon Boro.
- Stockton Boro.
And, these seven areas had only had one or two sales each last month:
- Bethlehem Twp.
- E Amwell
At the same time, there were the several usual hot spots:
- Clinton/Clinton Township with 16 sales
- Raritan Township with 20 sales
- Readington Township with 9 sales
- Tewksbury Township with 14 sales
These four areas combined for 54% of the sales in Hunterdon County last month. The average new listing coming on the market last month was at nearly $415,382 while the average price of a unit going “under contract” was at nearly $403,374 or 3% less.
Note: In order to get a true picture of the status of your particular property, this needs to be done by price point within your specific town. I do this as part of my research when listing a property and can do it for you. I also can show you how the market is trending for your particular town. Just give me a call.
Houses that are priced properly are selling. There is a current market for them with many active buyers. But more than ever, buyers and sellers need to be working with an experienced agent who has a strong grasp of the market conditions specific to your local area. I can share information on all of these statistics with you. Just call me at 908-238-0118. I can offer you knowledgeable and proven advice based upon my more than 20 years of experience, with a special emphasis on Hunterdon County. Meet Joe Peters (short video)
Other conditions impacting sales in our area are:
New Jersey Home Sales:
Home purchase demand increased in New Jersey during November, rising by a plus 9% over the same month last year, which marks the 27th monthly increase in a row.
On a year to date basis , sales rose be by 15% vs. the prior year. The increase has been most widely seen in the under $400,000 market where the millennial buyers are most active as they transition in to home ownership. During the same period (priced above $2,500,000) decreased by 4% reflecting the increase in first time buyers and empty-nesters “right sizing”.
At the same time, the number of homes being offered for sale in New Jersey, has remained low, and has recently decreased. The supply has decreased by some 8,000 homes as compared to a year ago or minus 15%. And, there are currently 32,000+ fewer (-43%) homes on the market in New Jersey than there were at our peak in NJ in 2011.
The current unsold inventory in New Jersey sits at just under 5.4 month vs. 6.8 month a year ago.
Current increasing interest rates (combined with the fear of higher interest rates in the future) combined with the Fed’s slightly loosening lending standards seems to be driving the current market activity.
Interest rates at the end of December have increased to just above the 4.3% level for a 30 year conventional mortgage (24 basis point move). A fifteen year conventional mortgages is at just under the 3.15% range. Five and seven year arms are in the 4.1% range.
The combination of the fear of steadily rising rates and slowly rising home prices is driving the current market. And, we have seen several industry experts state that the economy could support a 6 to 7% interest rate making you wonder what is coming down the pike. And, the Fed has already instituted an initial increase in rates. Most industry experts are forecasting at laeast a 1% increase for this time next year (which would decrease buying power by about 9%).
National and New Jersey Job Front:
On the national level the US reached full recovery in May of 2014 and saw an increase of 2,700,000+ in 2015.
After a slow start, only approximately 1,980,000+ gave been reported so far year to date with 178,000 jobs being added in November. If this pace continues, the 2016 number is forecasted to be 2,200,000+ jobs as compared to last years increase of 2,700,000+. This is a drop of 21% from 2015.
It should be noted, due to full-time and part-time jobs being counted equally by the BLS, these numbers are misleading. Actually, the US Economy still needs to create nearly an additional 3+ Million jobs to achieve the same employment situation that existed prior to the start of the recession.
NJ job growth increase by 65,000+ jobs in 2015 (the best in 15 years). At that pace, NJ was on track to recover all of its jobs lost in the recession by 2017 (3 years later than the national level) and has recovered about 96% of those jobs to date.
NJ has shown an increase of 9,300 in jobs added November after continuing its erratic record for the year so far (there were job declines in six of the first eleven months in 2016) showing a gain of 8,800+ jobs year to date which is only 15% of the 69,000+ jobs added for the same period last year. The NJ unemployment rate has decreased slightly to 5.0% which surpasses the overall US rate of 4.6%.
Rental Market Trends:
Prior restrictive mortgage standards have forced younger age buyers (millennials) to postpone their transition to home ownership until later in life than was previously seen. For the most part, these potential have been living with mom and dad or sharing rentals with others in the same situation.
Yet, we are starting to see them now re-enter the rental and first time buyer markets.
The average age of our first time buyer is reported to have risen from 29 to 37 years over the past five years.
And, many older age households are selling their homes and moving into rentals to close their gap in underfunded retirement plans which were affected by the recent economic downturns.
The net result of these actions are continuing to cause rental prices to quickly rise in New Jersey (about 10% annually) and keeping rental inventory extremely low (we currently have a 2.4% vacancy rate in central NJ (with the average rental price topping $1,300) as compared the national vacancy rate of 4.4%.
Contributing to the demand in rentals is the drop in home ownership in NJ which has dropped from 71% to 64% over the past 10+ years. This is a drop of 10% in NJ as compared to a drop of 8% at the national level and contributes to the slower recovery of home prices in the state. Also affecting it is the increase in 1 or 2 person households that have no children. This is also reflected in our school population.
NJ continues to face very high foreclosure rate filings while other states have begun to, or already have recovered.
This figure varies widely by local market. It is also impacted greatly in areas hit particularly hard by hurricane Sandy (which was just about three years ago).
The percentage of delinquent mortgage loans in NJ that are 90+ days past due has fell to 5.7 percent (which is down from 11.4% four years earlier). This ranks NJ as number one in the country followed by NY and then LA, MS , ME, MD and DE. Nationally this number is just around 2.5%.
NJ is experiencing an increased rate in foreclosure filings while most states are seeing the reverse of this. In 2105 there was a 14% increase over the prior year and added an additional nearly 77,000 filings. For 2016 the foreclosure filing rate in NJ is forecasted to be nearly 73,000, a slight improvement. These foreclosures will continue to add pressure to home prices (especially in areas where they are concentrated).
The positive news is that in a market starved for inventory, these foreclosures are now only selling at a small discount.
2016 has not been a normal year from the elections viewpoint to the US and NJ economy viewpoint.
Yet, we have seen a surge in home sales in central NJ in 2016. Especially in the sub $400K market. We are plagued my not having enough inventory in those more popular price points and these sales increases could be even better if we had more inventory. But, as inventory builds up as prices continue to rise (and people are no longer under water), this should have a positive effect on prices. Year to date we have seen a 2.8% rise in prices in NJ. It is forecasted to be around 3%, but time will tell. And, it is dependent on location and price point.
We are also starting to see people in their home over 10 years thinking about making a change. They were reluctant over the past five or so years because of the poor economy. Their equity has built back up and they now can make a change.
We are seeing the most effect on prices in the under $400K markets where the first time buyers and millennials are shopping. The over $500K market is holding steady to diminishing slightly depending on location and price. A lot of times when a $500K property come on the market, it is completing with a $600K that really needs to sell is and now in the $500s competing with them (and so on…).
And, the foreclosures are to some extent helping to offset the fewer listings.
Net, net: As either a seller or buyer, the time could not be better to be in the market. We still have low (but increasing) interest rates, a pent up demand from both a buyer and seller viewpoint and a very active market with slightly increasing prices. Give me a call at 908-238-0118 to discuss your particular situation and let me put my expertise to work for you.
Note: The information presented is deemed accurate but not reliable or guaranteed. Reasonable precautions were taken in the preparation and presentation of this information to ensure accuracy, but the author assumed no liability for any actions taken based on this information. Some opinions expressed represent forecasts of economic conditions as the impact real estate values. All such information is solely conjecture and should be regarded as opinion only and not serve as the sole basis of any financial decision.
Presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Weichert, Realtors
Call Joe at (908) 238-0118